🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $436K from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro just before it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation. Changing Odds in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A single trader, which joined the platform in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a starting bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Market statistics shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. Yet the market's assessment had increased to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of the next day, suggesting a sudden change in market sentiment right before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," stated an industry expert. Several of other traders also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation presented on recently seeks to ban federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the past few years, with participants able to wager on everything from sports to political events. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting industry. An official representative for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."